Greater Baddow – Under Essexian law, it is now possible for us to reveal the results of our opinion poll for the Essexian by-elections. It should be noted that this poll had a heavy Discord bias, which showed stronger support for third-party candidates than is likely.
What would these results mean if they were accurate?
Should this outcome materialise, it is not unprecedented, nor is it unexpected. However, it was an outcome that both mainstream parties sought desperately to avoid – a hung Parliament.
It also shows that voting by party in Essexia is diminishing, and that being a strong candidate could now be more important than standing in a popular party.
If these results are correct, it would also show both mainstream parties were respectively disadvantaged by FPTP. Seat 1 could have been more of a toss-up in a proportional system, and the data we collected suggested that in an exclusive Royalist-Green contest, there might have only been a few votes in it. We can assume the same for seat 2.
Despite this, the contest is still to play for. There’s over a day of campaigning left, and if previous elections are anything to go by, there can be plenty of surprises.
Seeing as they would only have to swing 3pt’s, the Greens might start ramping up their efforts against Matt G. Although the Royalists would have to swing 8pt’s to overtake Terry, it’s not impossible, especially if they go after 3rd party support instead of trying to campaign against the former Emperor who remains a very popular figure.